Everything is gambling now: the latest news on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi – The Verge

Kalshi says it caught Trump’s teleprompter operator insider trading

2026-07-16T14:43:14-04:00

Kalshi users betting on what President Donald Trump would say during his speeches were reportedly up against tough competition: the president's teleprompter operator.

ABC News reports that federal investigators believe Gabriel Perez - Trump's teleprompter operator since 2016 - used inside information to make bets on Kalshi, a major prediction market platform that allows users to bet on just about everything. One category that Kalshi offers is "mentions" markets, in which users try to predict what an individual will say during high-profile events.

Perez is accused of betting on what Trump would say during more than a dozen events, including …

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Zuckerberg reportedly wants a Polymarket clone — but without real money

2026-06-23T14:31:25-04:00

Mark Zuckerberg. | Image: Cath Virginia / The Verge; Getty Images

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has tasked a small team at the company with making an app that works like the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi, according to The New York Times. The app, internally called "Arena" won't let users wager real money, but instead will "probably rely" on allowing users to bet with points, the NYT says - though Meta apparently hasn't ruled out eventually allowing people to bet with real money.

Should Meta's app launch publicly, it would be just the latest example of Meta taking a popular idea from another company and building its own version, like it did when it cloned Snapchat's Stories format and TikTok's vertic …

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Polymarket reportedly paid people to post fake videos of themselves placing bets

2026-06-22T05:34:33-04:00

According to a Wall Street Journal investigation, Polymarket has been paying people to film themselves placing fake bets and celebrating fake wins on social media. WSJ identified over 1,100 deceptive clips and talked to creators who, despite not stating as such in their videos, confirmed the company paid them to create the clips.

The videos posted on social media look legit at first, but there are subtle clues that betray them as fraudulent. For instance, when examined closely, one clip shows someone visiting "poiymarket.com" rather than polymarket.com. According to the Journal's investigation, none of the bets placed in the over 1,100 vide …

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Kalshi adds required employment verification for some prediction market bets

2026-06-10T16:18:16-04:00

The CFTC is considering its first regulation for prediction markets, as arrests over "insider trading" on everything from military operations to Google Search data continue to stack up. As CoinDesk reports, a notice of proposed rulemaking says "the proposal would establish a structured framework for evaluating whether such contracts involve an activity enumerated in Section 5c(c)(5)(C) of the Commodity Exchange Act -activity that involves terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, or conduct that is unlawful under federal or state law-and, if so, whether that contract is contrary to the public interest."

Separately, Kalshi announced on Wednesda …

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Players from the NBA, NFL, and MLB call for a ban on betting ‘unders’

2026-05-01T12:57:27-04:00

The unions backing professional NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, and MLS players are calling on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to ban prediction market platforms from allowing users to bet on a player's underperformance or injury, Sports Business Journal reports. In their letter, the unions cite the need for "appropriate regulations" to protect athletes and their families from "abusive and harassing behavior."

The unions wrote the letter in response to the CFTC's request for comment on the regulation of prediction markets, such as those operated by Kalshi and Polymarket. In addition to asking for a ban on "under" bets, the unions also w …

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US arrests soldier who allegedly made $400K on Maduro Polymarket bets

2026-04-24T15:04:47-04:00

Nicolas Maduro is seen in handcuffs after landing at a Manhattan helipad on January 5, 2026 in New York City.

We knew someone made over $400,000 on suspicious Polymarket bets around the US operation to capture Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, but now we have a name: Gannon Ken Van Dyke. The US Attorney for the Southern District of New York announced Thursday that Van Dyke is in custody, on several charges, including using confidential government information for personal gain.

As described in the indictment, prosecutors allege Van Dyke was directly involved in the planning and execution of "Operation Absolute Resolve" to capture Maduro, and in the days before the capture, made several transactions purchasing "$33,934 worth of 'YES' shares on Mad …

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Betting on the news raises ethical questions for journalists

2026-04-17T14:24:01-04:00

Prediction market exchanges have created an environment where just about any piece of information is potentially monetizable: How well will BTS's new song perform this week? How hot will Los Angeles get? Will Donald Trump be impeached? Users can wager on all of that and, on some platforms, more gruesome and violent outcomes in the real world.

The rapid rise and expansion of Polymarket and Kalshi have put newsrooms in a strange position. Prediction market evangelists often claim that their odds are more trustworthy and accurate than polls and traditional media - effectively positioning the industry as a replacement for news. At the same time …

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Google says Polymarket bets showing up in News was an ‘error’

2026-04-11T11:07:47-04:00

Polymarket bets started popping up in Google News alongside legitimate news articles. But now those results aren't showing, and Google says they were never supposed to. Spokesperson Ned Adriance told The Verge that "Google News is designed to show sources that create content about current issues, events, and important topics, and we have policies for sites to be eligible to appear. This site briefly appeared in Google News in error, and it is no longer surfacing in News."

The links led directly to betting markets tied to specific news events. For instance, before the results were removed, Futurism searched "will ships transit the strait," ( …

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Insider trading or random guy? It doesn’t matter to Polymarket

2026-04-02T20:26:05-04:00

In mid-March, conspiracy theories swirled claiming Benjamin Netanyahu had been replaced by an AI clone. Though there was no actual proof that the Israeli Prime Minister had been injured or killed, on X this spurred a flurry of posts promoting prediction markets where people bet on whether he would be out of office by March 31st. One newly created Polymarket account in particular caught the attention of bettors: dududududu22, which had purchased more than $177,000 worth of "Yes" shares at 4.7 cents. Surely, only someone with inside knowledge would take such a risky position?

"This makes him possible to get paid of $3,779,000 in case of win," …

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Kalshi says it will block politicians and athletes from trading in markets they’re tied to

2026-03-23T16:24:43-04:00

The prediction market platform Kalshi says it's rolling out new guardrails to "preemptively block" political candidates and athletes from trading in their own markets, as reported earlier by Axios. In addition to blocking political candidates from trading on their own campaigns, Kalshi says its system will also prevent professional and college sports athletes, referees, and personnel from trading in sports they're involved in:

The guardrails we built use state-of-the-art technology and screening lists, but no screening system is perfect, and motivated bad actors consistently try to find a way. To that end, we are also adding a whistleblowe …

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