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Russia’s successful rocket launch is a good sign for next month’s astronaut mission

The same rocket that failed in October successfully made it to space

The same rocket that failed in October successfully made it to space

A Soyuz FG rocket before its launch in June
A Soyuz FG rocket before its launch in June
A Soyuz FG rocket before its launch in June
Image: NASA/Joel Kowsky

Russia’s state space corporation, Roscosmos, successfully launched a cargo capsule to the International Space Station this afternoon — using the same type of rocket that failed more than a month ago with two astronauts on board. It’s a sign that Roscosmos has potentially fixed the issue that led to the failure and that the rocket may be ready to carry people again. And that’s good news, since the vehicle’s next crewed launch is coming up on December 3rd.

The rocket that launched today was the Soyuz FG, which sent up a Progress capsule filled with food and supplies to the three crew members on board the ISS. It’s technically not the first Soyuz launch since the accident, though. Roscosmos has already launched versions of the Soyuz rocket three times since the October incident, but those vehicles were not in the same configuration as the one that failed. The other flights used variants of the Soyuz-2, an upgraded version of the rocket with modified engines and guidance systems that’s used to carry satellites into orbit. The Soyuz FG is an older version of the rocket that Roscosmos uses to carry people and cargo to the ISS.

Before the unfortunate event last month, the Soyuz FG had a 100 percent success rating

Before the unfortunate event last month, the Soyuz FG had a 100 percent success rating, with 64 successful launches since its 2001 debut. But on October 11th, the rocket broke apart just minutes after launching from Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan, with NASA astronaut Nick Hague and Russian cosmonaut Alexey Ovchinin on board. Hague and Ovchinin survived the incident after their capsule switched into abort mode. It separated from the failing rocket and initiated a ballistic descent, during which the astronauts felt up to 6.7 G forces. The pair safely touched down in Kazakhstan a half hour after the failure.

Video of the failure revealed that the problem occurred during stage separation, when the four boosters surrounding the base of the rocket are meant to break away during flight. Normally, the boosters separate evenly in a cross-like pattern, but one of the boosters crashed into the middle of the rocket instead, causing the accident. An investigation by Roscosmos ultimately concluded that a deformed sensor on the rocket was to blame. The sensor was responsible for signaling the separation of the stages.

NASA astronaut Nick Hague shaking hands with NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine following the aborted launch in October
NASA astronaut Nick Hague shaking hands with NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine following the aborted launch in October
Image: NASA/Bill Ingalls

Roscosmos said the sensor had been damaged during the rocket assembly process, and that it was possible that two additional vehicles had the same issue. However, with today’s flight it seems that Roscosmos might have isolated the problem.

The next big test will be the upcoming crewed flight in December. That mission was originally supposed to occur on December 20th, but was moved up to the 3rd, since the Soyuz failure left the ISS with a smaller crew than planned. The flight is slated to carry NASA astronaut Anne McClain, Canadian astronaut David Saint-Jacques, and Russian cosmonaut Oleg Kononenko to the space station. McClain has stated that she’s confident in the capability of the Soyuz, since the abort system ultimately saved the lives of the astronauts on board.

The next big test will be the upcoming crewed flight in December

“I do see the incident that happened on Oct. 11 with our launch abort not as a failure but as a success,” McClain told Reuters. “It actually bolsters my confidence in the rocket and in the processes that we have.”

If that launch goes well, then NASA may not have to face the possibility of an empty ISS. The three crew members currently on board the station have been in space for the last five months, and they can only stay in orbit for about another month. That’s because their Soyuz capsule — which brought them to the station and takes them home — has a limited lifetime in orbit and must come down within six and a half months. The trio are currently slated to come back at the end of December. If the next crew doesn’t launch before then, NASA will either need to de-crew the station entirely or send up another empty Soyuz capsule to extend the current crew’s time on board.

With today’s launch, it seems like neither of those scenarios may come into play. At least, not yet. A lot rides on the December 3rd launch.

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