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Archives for May 2025

Adi Robertson
Adi Robertson
“Let’s talk about Chrome.”

Back after a short break, Dahlquist is arguing for why Google should have to sell its web browser. “Browsers are the way users get into the internet,” he says, and a huge part of that is search. He recaps the basics about Chrome’s popularity, including that 35 percent of Google queries come through Chrome.

Mehta asks about conditions the DOJ might put on selling Chrome, including whether the new owner would be banned from keeping Google as a default. Dahlquist seems to say it wouldn’t be, since the goal is simply to create more opportunities for competition. Mehta follows up: who would own it? I can’t see the slide Dahlquist shows to answer that question, but we’ve discussed the answer here.

Adi Robertson
Adi Robertson
A quick recap.

We’re nearing the end of the day and currently on break. A few broad highlights:

  • Judge Mehta has dedicated numerous questions to probing whether AI chatbots should be included in the remedies, but he’s also expressed skepticism that a conventional search engine could rise and challenge Google.
  • There’s a sizable rift over whether, and under what conditions, Google should be required to share search data, much of which is focused on figuring out what the precise details of such an agreement would look like — particularly how much user data should be shared.
  • Mehta seems concerned about hurting Mozilla, Apple, and other distributors by banning the kinds of lucrative default placement deals they cut with Google, and he’s probed options for compromise. Google can point to plenty of testimony from distributors who rely heavily on its money and don’t see an alternative to its search engine. The DOJ’s responses have been relatively nebulous — saying the long-term effects of promoting competition will still help these companies out.
  • The parties haven’t yet reached one of the flashiest government proposals: a plan to make Google spin off Chrome.
Adi Robertson
Adi Robertson
Judge: “I’m not sure Microsoft would even step forward and put very much in the pot.”

Mehta asks the DOJ’s attorney why Microsoft would bother paying for placement if Google weren’t able to bid, echoing the claim from Google’s lawyer.

“Even Bing will know this time period will end,” Dahlquist answers, since the ban on Google bidding would expire. And “in the long term, which is what we’re focused on, when this market is operating at a competitive level, we expect those payments could go up.” In other words, Microsoft would know it couldn’t rest safe in being a new, secure monopolist, so it’s incentivized to pay a reasonable amount to companies like Mozilla.

Adi Robertson
Adi Robertson
“Microsoft’s not coming in with a non-exclusive deal,” says Google lawyer.

Ban Google from bidding for default search engine placement, says Schmidtlein, and Microsoft will just roll up with its own wheelbarrow of cash for a similar exclusive deal with Bing. “This would be one of the most invasive remedies I can imagine, and it would also harm all of these adjacent markets,” he says. He adds that companies are “competing just fine with Gemini” as well.

Adi Robertson
Adi Robertson
“We just like, threw it out there, to see what would happen!”

That’s Google’s attorney’s description of how OpenAI launched ChatGPT as a “lark.” The underlying argument is that the judge doesn’t need to impose long-term restrictions, since the market moves so fast — and now, of course, OpenAI is raising billions in funding.

Adi Robertson
Adi Robertson
“Maybe people don’t want ten blue links anymore.”

Mehta seems dubious that any conventional search engine will ever come to rival Google. If a competitor emerges, “it’s not going to be DuckDuckGo,” he says. It won’t even be Microsoft. It will be, he says, likely an AI service that includes search.

Adi Robertson
Adi Robertson
Can Google possibly lose in a ban on placement deals?

Mehta brings up an issue Apple’s Eddy Cue raised during his testimony. Cue said that if Google was banned from cutting exclusive deals, Apple would still be forced to use it as the default because it’s the only viable option, while Google would simply stop needing to pay it for that placement. Is that a valid problem?

“The answer is today versus tomorrow,” Dahlquist says. “Hopefully in a future, world, he would say, I’ve got two or three great options out there,” and he can “play them off each other” to cut even better deals.

Adi Robertson
Adi Robertson
Should Firefox die to punish Google?

Mehta poses a weighty question to the DOJ: how seriously should he take the dire warnings that companies Google pays for default placement, including Mozilla, have made during testimony? “Every single distribution partner ... has said, this would harm us. This would harm us. Some have gone so far as to suggest this would put them out of business,” Mehta says. “Is that an acceptable outcome to fix one market at the risk of harming others? Because that’s what these other folks are telling us.” Mozilla, for instance, has said its Google deal provides the vast majority of its revenue.

“We don’t dispute the possibility of some private impact,” Dahlquist responds, though he disputes the magnitude. He argues that these warnings are still speculative, and that the issue at hand now is how to fix Google’s monopoly. Mehta seems dubious, saying a dramatic remedy could amount to him damaging the phone and browser market — both of which, incidentally, Google operates in. How, he asks, should he balance breaking Google’s hold on search with serving the larger public good?

Adi Robertson
Adi Robertson
“Those payments have frozen the ecosystem.”

Dahlquist makes the case for banning Google from offering payments for default placement on platforms, singling out its “astronomical” revenue-sharing deal with Apple. “If we continue to let Google pay for distribution, it will continue to win every contract,” he said. “Nobody can pay as much as Google.” He extends this to how Google is handling Gemini default placement.

Mehta asks: does this argument depend on him declaring Gemini a search access point? “I don’t think so,” Dahlquist says. Even if it’s not right now, “it certainly could be tomorrow.”

Adi Robertson
Adi Robertson
Next up: distribution.

Lunch now concluded, the DOJ’s Dahlquist is discussing the “monopoly flywheel” that keeps Google dominant, particularly the deals that have given Google default placement on places like Safari. Google has, as Mehta pointed out, offered some concessions here. “Their remedy as I understand it is, drop the word ‘exclusivity” in these deals,” Dahlquist says, and the DOJ agrees with that. But he says Google “doesn’t go nearly far enough” in including Gemini in its proposals.

Adi Robertson
Adi Robertson
Another break.

We’ll be back in 45 minutes for more.

Adi Robertson
Adi Robertson
Privacy is becoming a sticking point.

Or more specifically, the lack of a detailed plan from the government about how to preserve it. “How much detail do I need to put on paper?” Mehta asks DOJ attorney Adam Severt. Right now, he says, he’s got “zero.” The DOJ is aiming for a committee that could decide, which Google strenuously objects to. Mehta runs through a series of steps the committee might have to take and asks how long it would require. A “couple of weeks to month to set up the experiment,” and then “a day or two to run the experiment,” Severt says.

Adi Robertson
Adi Robertson
“I think the privacy stuff is a complete failure here.”

Schmidtlein is tearing into the government for not hammering out how to handle sensitive data before and during this hearing, and instead trying to kick it down the road for a decision later. “There’s an extraordinary amount of user data here,” and everyone “admits that it implicates privacy,” he says. Google previously argued that revealing search query data would undermine user trust, and he reiterates that search queries can reveal detail about individual people even if you try to remove personal identifying information. “We have a rough idea of a standard of privacy, but no idea about how to solve it,” he says. “It’s not even begun to be resolved.”

Adi Robertson
Adi Robertson
We’re back to Google.

Schmidtlein is coming back, starting where the government left off, with search data syndication and who might get access to it — which he emphatically says shouldn’t include AI companies. “It could not be more clear, they are not trying to out-Google Google. They’re going about it in a different way. They are not a search engine,” he says. “The only person who would qualify right now under their definition is Microsoft” with Bing.

Adi Robertson
Adi Robertson
Could Google only share the long tail?

Judge Mehta is zeroing in on the possibility Google could only share those long-tail queries. The plaintiffs say the approach might make sense, but that it’s not always obvious how to define a long-tail query. Mehta objects to that, saying it seems like something competitors should figure out. “They don’t have access to the same data ... that’s the problem,” he says — not that they can’t figure out what they are.