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Tom Warren

Tom Warren

Senior Correspondent

Senior Correspondent

    More From Tom Warren

    Tom Warren
    Tom Warren
    We’re on a break for three hours.

    Witness testimony has ended for the day and we’re now on a break until 2:30PM PT / 5:30PM ET. That’s when closing arguments will be heard and this hearing will come to an official close. Not long to go folks.

    If you missed Xbox CFO Tim Stuart’s earlier testimony then we have a recap right here. Let’s recap what Stuart said since then:

    • Microsoft has been contemplating the financial gaps of Xbox exclusivity

    • The FTC accidentally lets slip that Xbox Game Pass would need to grow by 2 million subs a year to help offset Call of Duty exclusivity

    • Nintendo Switch impacted Xbox Series S pricing

    • The Xbox oil company and a mobile future

    Minecraft is a “significant” revenue driver for Microsoft, but not thanks to Xbox.

    We’ll be back at 2:30PM PT / 5:30PM ET for closing arguments.

    Tom Warren
    Tom Warren
    Microsoft responds to Canada’s competition regulator.

    The Canadian competition regulator intervened in the FTC v. Microsoft hearing earlier today, filing a letter to Judge Corley warning that it had:

    concluded that the proposed merger is likely to result in a substantial prevention and / or lessening of competition with respect to gaming consoles and multigame subscription services (as well as cloud gaming)

    Microsoft has now responded, making it clear the formal period for Canada’s regulator to prevent the deal from closing has already passed:

    We received notice from the Canada Competition Bureau that it would continue to monitor our acquisition of Activision Blizzard after the formal waiting period preventing the deal to close expired. We continue to work with regulators around the world to address any remaining concerns - Microsoft spokesperson Rebecca Dougherty

    Vancouver port
    Photo by Britta Pedersen/picture alliance via Getty Images
    Tom Warren
    Tom Warren
    The Xbox oil company and a mobile future.

    Microsoft’s lawyer references comments from Xbox CFO Tim Stuart discussing the potential of mobile and Call of Duty mobile specifically. He compares mobile to electric cars:

    We don’t want to be the oil company when the world shifts to 100 percent electric cars

    Obviously the oil part here is consoles. He clarifies his comments:

    You just don’t want to be on a business model that won’t exist in the future.

    That doesn’t mean Microsoft thinks Xbox consoles are about to die, but it sure means they don’t see much revenue opportunity there compared to the mobile market.

    Tom Warren
    Tom Warren
    Nintendo Switch impacted Xbox Series S pricing.

    We’re back on the Nintendo Switch beat again. I knew it would come eventually. Microsoft’s lawyer is questioning Xbox CFO Tim Stuart now.

    Stuart confirms the Nintendo Switch is an Xbox competitor and has impacted the price of Xbox Series S:

    Yes at that price point when you’re considering playing FIFA or Minecraft or any of the games across platform, you have to make sure your price relative to the competition in the market

    Photo by James Bareham / The Verge
    Tom Warren
    Tom Warren
    Xbox Game Pass would need to grow by 2 million subs a year to help offset CoD exclusivity.

    We’re still hearing parts of emails about Microsoft offsetting shifts in revenues and the FTC just messed up and revealed Xbox Game Pass would need to grow by two million subscribers a year to help offset any Call of Duty exclusivity or reduced royalties from that decision.

    It’s still not clear how much revenue Microsoft would lose in this scenario though, but it’s a surprise piece of data we weren’t expecting to hear today.

    Tom Warren
    Tom Warren
    Making up the Xbox financial gaps of exclusivity.

    We’re now hearing evidence about Microsoft contemplating holding off games from PlayStation and offsetting those revenues against potential Xbox Game Pass subscribers.

    This has to be something that Microsoft commonly looks as with these acquisitions, but the FTC points out that Xbox CFO Tim Stuart asks “What happens if revenue that Activision earns on PlayStation declines?” and then “Let’s calculate Game Pass subs and how much revenue would have to move over to Xbox to offset that gap.”

    The FTC is implying here that Microsoft could take Call of Duty or other Activision games exclusive and try to make up the revenues with Xbox Game Pass subscriptions.

    A colleague of Stuart’s, Jamie Lawver, a finance director at Xbox, ran the numbers to create a table that would show many subscribers Microsoft needed for Game Pass or how much Activision revenue would need to shift to console to make up for lost revenues from Sony.

    Tom Warren
    Tom Warren
    Xbox mobile store time.

    Microsoft has been working on an Xbox mobile game store, but Apple and Google are blockers to that. We’re now hearing about how Activision content is also categorized with a view to this store.

    “It assumes we are able to monetize the store on iOS and Android,” Xbox CFO Tim Stuart admits.

    Companies like Microsoft and Spotify are hoping the EU’s Digital Markets Act will force Apple and Google to change how they distribute apps on mobile devices, and ultimately open their platforms and stores up to competition. Microsoft argues purchasing Activision is key to a mobile opportunity.

    A game streamed over Xbox Cloud Gaming on a tablet
    Image: Microsoft
    Tom Warren
    Tom Warren
    The Xbox Game Pass strategy tiers.

    There’s a model for accelerating Game Pass, and Microsoft categorizes Activision games into tier 1, tier 2, and tier 3. Tier 1 content is the top games that will generated the most hours on Game Pass. “Hours played is heavily correlated to overall subscribers,” confirms Stuart. Call of Duty would be a tier 1 game.

    Tom Warren
    Tom Warren
    A 15-minute break, time to recap.

    It has been a long morning of Xbox financials, with the FTC laying out its case for Microsoft having an incentive to withhold Bethesda and Activision Blizzard games.

    Xbox CFO Tim Stuart has been questioned for 90 minutes now, so let’s recap:

    • FTC sets the stage with “Dump trucks of money” comment

    • The financial models for Bethesda and Activision Blizzard are key here

    • Bethesda content first, better, or best on Xbox?

    • Microsoft had five scenarios to pick for Bethesda games

    • All Bethesda games exclusive? “Wow”

    Tom Warren
    Tom Warren
    A shift in Xbox sales?

    The FTC is trying to establish whether Microsoft’s different deal models could affect their console market share, so an incentive to close off games to competitors. Xbox CFO Tim Stuart is quizzed on if Microsoft’s deal models include whether Xbox console sales would increase.

    FTC: does the strategic benefit of the deal include a shift in the mix in how of how many Xbox consoles that are sold?

    Stuart: You’re asking about console ecosystem, there’s a lot of things that go into that. The console.. we don’t include any assumptions around share. If you’re asking about console ecosystem, share is included

    Picture of the Xbox Series X, showing its power button and vent.
    Photo by Vjeran Pavic / The Verge