Google has already proven surprisingly adept at predicting Oscar winners with search data, and now it says it’s figured out how to predict box office results too. With between 90 and 92 percent accuracy, Google can tell how much money any picture will make during its first two weeks in theaters — be it a blockbuster like The Avengers or a run-of-the-mill comedy like Identity Thief. To figure that amount out, Google looks at how heavily a film’s trailer is searched for during the month before its premiere, both on YouTube and in traditional search. But data from immediately before a picture’s release is just as important: if one movie receives 250,000 more searches than another movie that’s opening the same weekend, the first picture should take in about $4.3 million more.
Google can predict a movie’s success before release
is The Verge’s executive editor. He has covered tech, policy, and online creators for over a decade.
Follow topics and authors from this story to see more like this in your personalized homepage feed and to receive email updates.
