Andrew J. Hawkins

This isn’t just a lab experiment. We’re actively working to scale LMR cell chemistry and integrate them into our future vehicle lineup within this decade. The team is already producing our second-gen LMR cells at our pilot line.

One of the first assumptions was that the U.S. car market could shrink from 15 million a year to roughly 3 million because Robotaxis would be used for five times as many hours as privately owned cars, which sit in driveways and parking lots most of the time. Then the analysts subtracted Americans who wouldn’t switch to a driverless EV. These included people in rural parts of the country who often travel vast distances that are impractical for Robotaxis; suburbanites with kids and complicated pickup and drop-off schedules; and active people who routinely cart around a surfboard or a mountain bike.

That pushed probable annual Robotaxi sales well below 1 million vehicles a year. “There is ultimately a saturation of people who want to be ferried around in somebody else’s car,” said one person familiar with the situation.