Sean Hollister

Epic lead attorney Gary Bornstein announced that Epic rests its case. The jury has been dismissed for a week. We’ll be back on December 11th with closing arguments and jury instructions.

I’m working on one more post for you before I leave for the day, though — refresh our StoryStream in a couple minutes for that.

(Epic has since come back to point out that the Epic Games Store launched with no traction, and would have taken a while to gain some — and that Microsoft did move from 70/30 to 85/15 in 2019. So maybe it influenced Microsoft right away?)

Google hasn’t gotten a lot of points on Bernheim IMO, but it did just seem to nail him for comparing what he calculated as Google Play’s average service fee (26 percent) to ranges of fees (such as 13 percent to 23 percent for the Galaxy Store) in his slide.

Google suggested he should have pointed out that Google’s range was 4 percent to 30 percent, which I have to admit seems right! Bernheim wore it well, saying the comparison was appropriate because Play’s average fee was higher than the top of the other ranges, but he seemed to know he got got on that one.

➡ Tucker “uses list prices for commissions,” suggesting that Amazon charges 20 to 30 percent when it actually charges more like 10 percent and the Galaxy Store charges as low as 13 percent, suggests Bernheim.

Rather, because a 50 cent increase in prices to the end user (“that’s about 50 cents for the average smartphone user over the life of their phone,” he says) wouldn’t be enough to overcome the switching costs that do exist, given people only switch phones every 2.7 years on average.

He also says that graphs that show no change after RSA 3.0 are flawed: “Of course you don’t see any change, the competitors are pretty insignificant; it might become significant, Google starts its conduct, and then nothing happens, you stay at this very low level.”

As far as the Macy’s example, he says Macy’s isn’t dominant in its market, and we treat dominant companies differently.

On rev-share: “If you are sharing profits with a competitor you are disincentivizing competition and that’s what the antitrust laws are designed to prevent.”

And he claims that Professor Tucker’s proposed market definition is far beyond what makes sense. “You can’t put transactions that satisfy different needs for different buyers in the same market,” he tells Judge Donato, additionally saying he’s not sure what to make of Tucker’s idea that a licensing arrangement between Google and an OEM is not a transaction.

“When push came to shove, he talked about whether competition is prevented” rather than impaired, says Bernheim.

The upshot of that: Bernheim believes Epic doesn’t need to prove Google actually blocked competition entirely. In his opinion (for Epic), Epic only needs to show there were no good alternatives to Google Play and Google Play Billing. It doesn’t need to show there were no alternatives at all.

For example, says Bernheim, Gentzkow presented a chart titled “Was Fortnite Blocked?” showing that revenue tanked on Google Play after the app was kicked off the store, but didn’t tank for Android phones that got Fortnite a different way.

But “If off-Google Play was a good substitute for Google Play, you’d see when one drops, the other goes up commensurably.” That didn’t happen: demand stayed stable outside of Play, according to the bar graph we just saw. “There’s no indication that any of the people here are substituting to off-Google Play.”

“Because there’s competition, Google can’t extract as much because there’s a smaller share,” he says, showing us a pair of pie charts: one where Google has a $35 slice of a $50 pie and one where Google has a $10 slice of a $100 one.

(The $100 pie is supposed to represent competition in Android; the small pie “impaired” competition.)

He also says Google’s comparison of Android to the old Symbian OS is flawed because phones from rival manufacturers used different versions. “Each had their own versions of Symbian and each was incompatible with the other.”

He says he will point out basic errors in their analyses.

“Google could not achieve its financial goals without Play,” he added. “The work you do in this one room alone was really mission critical.”

And we’re breaking for lunch. See you in 30 or so.