158 – Breaking News & Latest Updates 2026
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Tom Warren

Tom Warren

Senior Correspondent

Senior Correspondent

    More From Tom Warren

    Tom Warren
    Tom Warren
    Xbox mobile store time.

    Microsoft has been working on an Xbox mobile game store, but Apple and Google are blockers to that. We’re now hearing about how Activision content is also categorized with a view to this store.

    “It assumes we are able to monetize the store on iOS and Android,” Xbox CFO Tim Stuart admits.

    Companies like Microsoft and Spotify are hoping the EU’s Digital Markets Act will force Apple and Google to change how they distribute apps on mobile devices, and ultimately open their platforms and stores up to competition. Microsoft argues purchasing Activision is key to a mobile opportunity.

    A game streamed over Xbox Cloud Gaming on a tablet
    Image: Microsoft
    Tom Warren
    Tom Warren
    The Xbox Game Pass strategy tiers.

    There’s a model for accelerating Game Pass, and Microsoft categorizes Activision games into tier 1, tier 2, and tier 3. Tier 1 content is the top games that will generated the most hours on Game Pass. “Hours played is heavily correlated to overall subscribers,” confirms Stuart. Call of Duty would be a tier 1 game.

    Tom Warren
    Tom Warren
    A 15-minute break, time to recap.

    It has been a long morning of Xbox financials, with the FTC laying out its case for Microsoft having an incentive to withhold Bethesda and Activision Blizzard games.

    Xbox CFO Tim Stuart has been questioned for 90 minutes now, so let’s recap:

    • FTC sets the stage with “Dump trucks of money” comment

    • The financial models for Bethesda and Activision Blizzard are key here

    • Bethesda content first, better, or best on Xbox?

    • Microsoft had five scenarios to pick for Bethesda games

    • All Bethesda games exclusive? “Wow”

    Tom Warren
    Tom Warren
    A shift in Xbox sales?

    The FTC is trying to establish whether Microsoft’s different deal models could affect their console market share, so an incentive to close off games to competitors. Xbox CFO Tim Stuart is quizzed on if Microsoft’s deal models include whether Xbox console sales would increase.

    FTC: does the strategic benefit of the deal include a shift in the mix in how of how many Xbox consoles that are sold?

    Stuart: You’re asking about console ecosystem, there’s a lot of things that go into that. The console.. we don’t include any assumptions around share. If you’re asking about console ecosystem, share is included

    Picture of the Xbox Series X, showing its power button and vent.
    Photo by Vjeran Pavic / The Verge
    Tom Warren
    Tom Warren
    All Bethesda games exclusive? ‘Wow.’

    We’re now hearing about a November 2021 meeting where Microsoft Xbox leaders had talked to Bethesda about exclusive games.

    “Not just new IP but all games going forward? Wow,” says Xbox CFO Tim Stuart during the meeting, referencing a decision from Phil Spencer on Bethesda games. This would obviously differ hugely from the Bethesda deal model.

    Tom Warren
    Tom Warren
    Canada’s competition regulator enters the chat.

    Canada’s Competition Bureau has written to Judge Corley to correct “factual inaccuracies” in the Microsoft / Activision court filings.

    Microsoft had claimed three things its filings:

    1 - Every single worldwide regulator that has examined the deal other than the FTC has rejected this theory [that Xbox will take COD away from PlayStation]

    2 - As a result of these efforts, all but one foreign regulator to pass on the issue [cloud gaming] has cleared the transaction. The lone exception is the United Kingdom’s CMA.

    3 - Ultimately, Lee’s analysis provides no basis to disregard the real world, where Sony has a favorable offer for COD, Xbox has made plain that it wants to provide COD to Sony (and in fact needs to continue to sell to Sony), and regulators around the world all agree that withholding COD from Sony would be unprofitable and is thus not a serious concern.

    Canada’s regulator says:

    Contrary to the foregoing quotations from the Memorandum, in a videoconference on May 5, 2023, the Bureau communicated to Microsoft and Activision’s Canadian counsel that the Bureau has concluded that the proposed merger is likely to result in a substantial prevention and/or lessening of competition with respect to gaming consoles and multigame subscription services (as well as cloud gaming), and that the Bureau is continuing to monitor the transaction

    Tom Warren
    Tom Warren
    Microsoft had five scenarios to pick for Bethesda games.

    Xbox CFO Tim Stuart is now discussing five strategy scenarios that Microsoft was weighing up for Bethesda in February 2021, just ahead of the deal closing. They range from number one being fully cross-platform and number five being full Xbox exclusivity.

    Full exclusivity would impact the deal valuation and when discussing these options Jerret West, Xbox CMO, said there would be “significant upset” to full exclusivity and there’s an admission that some leaders at Bethesda won’t be happy seeing games being cut from PlayStation.

    The FTC is clearly trying to show that Microsoft’s deal models are flexible where they can potentially offset losses.

    Tom Warren
    Tom Warren
    ‘Wish we could come out and say we’re taking it all exclusive.’

    The FTC has just presented an email between Xbox CFO Tim Stuart and Xbox chief Phil Spencer, where Spencer says Stuart’s investor talk about Bethesda “sure did stir up a lot of stuff. Stuart responds:

    Wish we could come out and say we’re taking [Bethesda content] all exclusive at this point.

    Spencer responds: “we can’t say that.”

    Another email between Stuart and Matty Booty, Xbox Game Studios chief, discusses making Bethesda’s games exclusives and the financial tradeoffs and concerns about valuation. The email mentions Xbox Game Pass subscriber growth, Xbox units, and offsetting these against the losses of taking games exclusive.

    The FTC wants to make it clear that Microsoft would be willing to take a financial hit to boost Xbox Game Pass subscriber growth, sell more consoles, and ultimately bring more consumers to its Xbox platform.

    Tom Warren
    Tom Warren
    Bethesda content first, better, or best on Xbox?

    We’re now hearing about a Jefferies investment meeting in November 2020 where Tim Stuart talks about not pulling Bethesda games. But the FTC reads out what he said:

    We want that content, in the long run, to be either first, or better, or best, and pick your differentiated experience on our platforms. We will want Bethesda content to show up the best on our platforms.

    The FTC wants Stuart to explain first, better, and best. He says first could be like Starfield, and FTC says better could mean better resolution? “Resolution is one thing, frame rate one thing. I was being pretty vague.”

    Stuart argues that showing up in Game Pass could be a better experience. But Stuart also said previously that “better could be showing up in resolution.” He also said “I suspect you’ll continue to see us push for a first, better, or best approach on our platforms.”

    This questioning clearly leans into the FTC and Sony’s concerns that Call of Duty could be “degraded” on PlayStation, or that games could be held back from competitor platforms.