More from Everything is gambling now: the latest news on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi

Just kidding! But some news organizations are offering prediction market affiliate codes — and publishing thousands of stories pushing gambling deals. Popular Information reports that news orgs owned by Advance Local (including The Oregonian and The Cleveland Plain Dealer) are on track to run more than 14,000 pieces of “gambling slop” this year promoting deals for sportsbooks, casinos, and prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi.

Everything is gambling, but not everything in gambling is going great, as CNBC reports that on Wednesday, FanDuel CEO Amy Howe was “ousted from that post after five years at the company.” FanDuel’s stock is down 60 percent over the last year, and DraftKings shares are down 30 percent.

A report by The Information says that for the US-licensed arm of the prediction market, chief executive Justin Hertzberg “appears to be CEO in name only,” despite his protestations to the contrary.

A Wall Street Journal analysis of 1.6 million accounts on the prediction market platform found that just 0.1 percent of accounts are raking in 67 percent of profits. Most Polymarket and Kalshi users are losing money — and the platforms continue to try to use journalists and influencers to bring in customers.

In a unanimous vote, the Senate passed a rule on Thursday that bars senators and their staff from trading on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, effective immediately, as CNBC reports. The ban follows growing concerns about insider trading — earlier this month, Kalshi banned three political candidates for bets related to their races.

As first reported by ABC News and now confirmed by the DOJ, federal investigators believe special forces soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke put down $33k on prediction market bets about Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro being removed from office, just before Trump announced his capture in January, profiting over $400,000.

The prediction market took action against a handful of congressional candidates: Ezekiel Enriquez (a Republican running in Texas); Mark Moran (an Independent in Virginia, who says he meant to get caught); and Matt Klein (a Democrat in Minnesota) for betting in markets related to their political races. Each was banned from the platform for five years and fined modest amounts ranging from several hundred to several thousand dollars.

Governor JB Pritzker signed an executive order today dealing specifically with prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. State employees were already barred from using insider information for personal gain, but this executive order specifically bans them from using it to make bets on prediction markets.

NPR issued prediction market guidance to staff, according to media reporter Ben Mullin, banning employees from betting on news events as well as NPR-related topics (like future Tiny Desk guests — yes, there’s a small market for that).

Delaware County is updating poll workers’ oath to bar election bets on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, Spotlight PA reports. “I think they’re a pernicious, horrible factor and I don’t think elections should be bet on in one shape or form,” the county’s elections director Jim Allen said.

A Polymarket user with a curiously perfect track record made $316,346 betting on Joe Biden’s last-minute pardons, including the preemptive pardons of his brother Jim, Liz Cheney, Adam Schiff, and Adam Kinzinger. It’s yet another example of potential insider trading on Polymarket. According to NPR:

Federal Judge Michael Liburdi issued a temporary restraining order halting the state’s case against the prediction market. The CFTC has stepped in to stop Arizona and other states from attempting to supersede federal efforts to regulate prediction markets, but the Trump Administration has largely avoided actually regulating them. Perhaps unsurprisingly, according to Business Insider:

Kalshi will have paid product placement on the biggest news channel in the US, according to The Hollywood Reporter (though Fox reportedly won’t use Kalshi for elections coverage). The network is the latest news organization to jump on the prediction market bandwagon: The Associated Press and CNN have deals, not to mention Kalshi and Polymarket’s vast influencer and advertising operations.

According to the ruling, New Jersey regulators can’t ban Kalshi from allowing users in the state to bet on sporting events, as Reuters reports:

There are few things that Polymarket seems to think are too controversial to allow betting on. But apparently, the potential capture or death of an American service member is one of them. The prediction market is already facing pressure from several states and Democrats in Congress. According to CoinDesk:

Attorney General Nick Brown filed a lawsuit against the prediction market on Friday, alleging that it constitutes illegal gambling. This comes shortly after Kalshi was temporarily shut down in Nevada, and Arizona’s AG filed criminal charges against it. AG Nick Brown drew attention to a particularly daming ad:

A Nevada judge has issued a temporary restraining order, saying the company can’t operate without first getting a gaming license. This is an escalation of a turf war between the states and the CFTC over who regulates prediction markets.

Their partnership, reportedly worth up to $300 million over three years, includes giving Polymarket “access to Official League Data from Sportradar, MLB’s exclusive global distributor of data for prediction markets.”