More from Everything is gambling now: the latest news on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi
NPR issued prediction market guidance to staff, according to media reporter Ben Mullin, banning employees from betting on news events as well as NPR-related topics (like future Tiny Desk guests — yes, there’s a small market for that).
I reported last week that newsrooms are adding prediction market-specific rules to their code of ethics, even as some of those same news outlets partner with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
Delaware County is updating poll workers’ oath to bar election bets on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, Spotlight PA reports. “I think they’re a pernicious, horrible factor and I don’t think elections should be bet on in one shape or form,” the county’s elections director Jim Allen said.
A Polymarket user with a curiously perfect track record made $316,346 betting on Joe Biden’s last-minute pardons, including the preemptive pardons of his brother Jim, Liz Cheney, Adam Schiff, and Adam Kinzinger. It’s yet another example of potential insider trading on Polymarket. According to NPR:
The trades linked to Biden’s pardons show that individuals could have been profiting from confidential government information before President Trump returned to office, when prescient bets related federal policy and military strikes on sites like Polymarket started to draw intense scrutiny.
Federal Judge Michael Liburdi issued a temporary restraining order halting the state’s case against the prediction market. The CFTC has stepped in to stop Arizona and other states from attempting to supersede federal efforts to regulate prediction markets, but the Trump Administration has largely avoided actually regulating them. Perhaps unsurprisingly, according to Business Insider:
Since Donald Trump returned to office, Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., has become a paid advisor to Kalshi, and an investment firm he works for invested in Polymarket.
Kalshi will have paid product placement on the biggest news channel in the US, according to The Hollywood Reporter (though Fox reportedly won’t use Kalshi for elections coverage). The network is the latest news organization to jump on the prediction market bandwagon: The Associated Press and CNN have deals, not to mention Kalshi and Polymarket’s vast influencer and advertising operations.
[The Hollywood Reporter]
According to the ruling, New Jersey regulators can’t ban Kalshi from allowing users in the state to bet on sporting events, as Reuters reports:
“A lower-court judge had sided with New York-based Kalshi and issued a preliminary injunction, prompting New Jersey to appeal. But a majority of the judges on the 3rd Circuit panel concluded the Commodity Exchange Act likely preempted state law.”
There are few things that Polymarket seems to think are too controversial to allow betting on. But apparently, the potential capture or death of an American service member is one of them. The prediction market is already facing pressure from several states and Democrats in Congress. According to CoinDesk:
A Polymarket spokesperson said the listing did not meet its integrity standards [and it was] removed shortly after it appeared. The company added that it is reviewing how the market passed internal safeguards.
Viral posts about insider trading don’t have to be true to be valuable.
Attorney General Nick Brown filed a lawsuit against the prediction market on Friday, alleging that it constitutes illegal gambling. This comes shortly after Kalshi was temporarily shut down in Nevada, and Arizona’s AG filed criminal charges against it. AG Nick Brown drew attention to a particularly daming ad:
In one Kalshi advertisement, one person texts another that they “found a way to bet on the NFL even though we live in Washington,” which seems to acknowledge that Kalshi knows that they are attempting to skirt state law. In fact, Kalshi did find a way to bet on the NFL in Washington; all they had to do was break the law.
A Nevada judge has issued a temporary restraining order, saying the company can’t operate without first getting a gaming license. This is an escalation of a turf war between the states and the CFTC over who regulates prediction markets.
Their partnership, reportedly worth up to $300 million over three years, includes giving Polymarket “access to Official League Data from Sportradar, MLB’s exclusive global distributor of data for prediction markets.”
This is after Emmanuel Clase de la Cruz and Luis Leandro Ortiz Ribera were indicted in November over allegedly rigging bets on pitches.
The CFTC insists it’s the sole authority on prediction markets — but can the agency police insider trading?
According to the Arizona attorney general, Kalshi is illegally operating a gambling business. It’s the first criminal case against the prediction market, which told Reuters that “States like Arizona want to individually regulate a nationwide financial exchange, and are trying every trick in the book to do it.” The case is part of an ongoing dispute between states and the CFTC about who has jurisdiction over Kalshi and similar companies.
Oscars bets aren’t new, but platforms like Kalshi are turning the practice into a different kind of game of chance.
Fresh off another round of controversial bets, accusations of insider trading, and general profiting off human suffering, the two biggest prediction markets are seeking fresh funds. According to the Wall Street Journal, both companies are trying to lure investors at a valuation of $20 billion, nearly twice last year’s.
[The Wall Street Journal]
Kalshi and Polymarket are cosplaying as the news, even as gambling on Iran, Venezuela, and nuclear war runs rampant.
The site seems to be drawing a line at betting on nuclear war. Even though Polymarket has allowed betting on whether or not there would be a nuclear detonation in a particular year previously, the possibility of a nuclear apocalypse in 2026 might be just a bit too real. According to 404 Media:
For a few hours on Tuesday, Polymarket hosted a bet about the possibility of nuclear war in 2026. The market asked the question “Nuclear weapon detonation by …?” and racked up close to a million dollars in trading volume before Polymarket took the unusual step to remove the market from its website.
Every time there’s a major event, it seems like some people head to Polymarket to make a quick buck at just the right time. It happened with the Super Bowl, with Nicolás Maduro, and now with Iran. In total, over $529 million was traded related to the timing of the strikes, but according to Bloomberg:
Six accounts on Polymarket made around $1 million in profit by betting on the US to strike Iran by Feb. 28, according to analytics firm Bubblemaps SA. The accounts were all freshly created in February and had only ever placed bets on when US strikes might occur. Some of their shares were purchased, in some cases at roughly a dime apiece, hours before the first explosions were reported in Tehran.
