More from Everything is gambling now: the latest news on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi
The site seems to be drawing a line at betting on nuclear war. Even though Polymarket has allowed betting on whether or not there would be a nuclear detonation in a particular year previously, the possibility of a nuclear apocalypse in 2026 might be just a bit too real. According to 404 Media:
For a few hours on Tuesday, Polymarket hosted a bet about the possibility of nuclear war in 2026. The market asked the question “Nuclear weapon detonation by …?” and racked up close to a million dollars in trading volume before Polymarket took the unusual step to remove the market from its website.
Every time there’s a major event, it seems like some people head to Polymarket to make a quick buck at just the right time. It happened with the Super Bowl, with Nicolás Maduro, and now with Iran. In total, over $529 million was traded related to the timing of the strikes, but according to Bloomberg:
Six accounts on Polymarket made around $1 million in profit by betting on the US to strike Iran by Feb. 28, according to analytics firm Bubblemaps SA. The accounts were all freshly created in February and had only ever placed bets on when US strikes might occur. Some of their shares were purchased, in some cases at roughly a dime apiece, hours before the first explosions were reported in Tehran.
A claim cited by the Substackers Against Nazis, and in much more recent reports. What if it also promoted service providers that make money from pushing people to gamble on and seek an edge in just about anything?
According to Polymarket, “Journalism is better when it’s backed by live markets.”
Prediction: This is going to be a mess for the Trump right.
Curbed described the scene as “bleak” and noted that many waiting in line for the promised free Tide Pods and milk (which was apparently purchased at an Aldi before being stocked on the popups’ oddly orderly shelves) had never heard of Polymarket and didn’t intend to place bets there. When Curbed asked why:
Because of the word market within Polymarket, per Josh Tucker, a company executive. Get it? Daf Orlovsky, a creative director, said it could work — “these ideas that don’t seem possible could be brought to life at tech-market speed,” he said.
An anonymous Polymarket account, created a day before the Super Bowl, bet exclusively on celebrity appearances during Bad Bunny’s performance, and got every single one right. It’s a little less alarming than the user who seemed to know Venezuelan president Maduro’s capture was coming, but no less suspicious.
First, no, we’re not, and second, I’d be happier if he said he was joining the Celtics than joining the prediction markets mess, as the still-on-the-Bucks superstar says he’s “joining Kalshi as a shareholder.”
Is this better or worse than the days when every athlete was pitching an NFT scheme/scam?
While being banned from the Super Bowl, the two large prediction markets have suddenly felt overcome by the spirit of giving in New York City this week. Kalshi advertised a $50 giveaway today, and Polymarket announced what it says will be “New York’s first free grocery store” when it opens on February 12th.
Polymarket — the same platform someone made thousands of dollars betting on Nicolás Maduro’s arrest — has 48 hours to cease operations in Portugal after users wagered more than 103 million euros (~$120 million) on the outcome of the country’s presidential election, according to a report from CoinDesk.
Political betting is illegal in Portugal, and its gambling regulator says Polymarket doesn’t have a license to operate in the country, CoinDesk reports.
Real people died while Trump treated war like a meme stock.
“Prediction markets” continue to appear everywhere, including CNN and CNBC, and Polymarket is shitposting about citizen journalism.
Meanwhile, The Athletic is the latest (following Awful Announcing and Front Office Sports) reporting on sports misinformation X accounts like “Emma Vance” and “Scott Hughes” have spread while sporting those site’s affiliate badges.
From meme stocks to bank accounts, how Robinhood is expanding its turf.
A new tidbit about the prediction markets startup from last week’s issue of Command Line:
Coplan recently raised, but has yet to announce, a $30 million round of funding at a $350 million valuation. And in recent conversations with investors (a surprising number of whom passed on the round, which was less than Coplan hoped to raise), I’m told he was noncommittal about whether the company would work to get the Commodity Futures Trading Commission license it needs to operate in the US.
According to The Wall Street Journal:
It wasn’t immediately clear what prompted the FBI’s search of [Shayne] Coplan, the 26-year-old entrepreneur behind one of the most successful prediction markets in history. But Polymarket quickly tied the raid to its track record in the recent presidential election, in which bettors on its platform correctly anticipated that Donald Trump would beat Vice President Kamala Harris.
Bloomberg also reports that Polymarket is being investigated by the DOJ for allegedly letting users in the US place bets on the site.
The startup has received “tens of millions from investors in short-term loans“ to make sure it can cover election bets:
Like most brokerages, the company offers instant funding to new users. This means users can start trading right away, even though it may take two to three business days for the funds to be officially transferred from the customer’s bank account to Kalshi’s.