Prediction markets will let you bet on just about anything, from how many tweets Elon Musk will post this week to the next president of the United States, with predictions sometimes showing shockingly (or suspiciously) spot-on accuracy. Polymarket’s CEO Shayne Copland has even claimed that prediction markets are “the most accurate thing we have as mankind right now.”
However, these platforms blur the lines — in terms of both function and regulation — between gambling and stock trading. As Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal said on The Vergecast, “All of the lines between trading, speculating, [and] gambling are just being completely torn apart.”
There are also ethical concerns surfacing around prediction markets, like whether it’s acceptable to be able to place a bet on virtually everything, along with concerns about insider trading. For instance, a newly-created Polymarket account made over $400,000 in January betting on the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
- Washington state blocks Kalshi.
A state court has granted a preliminary injunction against Kalshi, ruling its sports-related “event contracts” likely violate state online gambling bans. The judge rejected Kalshi’s defense that federal CFTC regulation shields it from state enforcement. Kalshi will likely have to geoblock Washington residents, marking yet another legal setback for prediction markets.
- Polymarket is being blocked in France.
The country’s gambling regulator ordered local internet service providers to block access to the Polymarket website on Friday, citing noncompliance concerns with rules for gambling and gaming services. The regulator also said that some bets on the platform “appeared to be rigged.”
Kalshi says it caught Trump’s teleprompter operator insider trading
Image: The VergeKalshi users betting on what President Donald Trump would say during his speeches were reportedly up against tough competition: the president’s teleprompter operator.
ABC News reports that federal investigators believe Gabriel Perez — Trump’s teleprompter operator since 2016 — used inside information to make bets on Kalshi, a major prediction market platform that allows users to bet on just about everything. One category that Kalshi offers is “mentions” markets, in which users try to predict what an individual will say during high-profile events.
Read Article >- ChatGPT is now citing Kalshi data.
OpenAI and the prediction market have a deal, The New York Times reports, that pulls in Kalshi data for World Cup-related queries. A prompt for “France and Spain,” for example, included a win forecast attributed to Kalshi.
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are everywhere right now, and that’s by design. The companies have inked deals with news outlets, newsletter writers, and random X accounts — and now Kalshi will reach potential customers via chatbots.
Image: OpenAI - Kalshi “Pro” adds a terminal-style interface to make gambling more like trading.
The latest evolution in prediction market technology is Kalshi’s “professional-grade desktop trading workstation,” a web UI now available publicly in a beta test that takes its styling cues from stock trading terminals instead of sportsbooks.
According to the company, Kalshi Pro is part of its “transformation from a retail app for prediction market trading into a full-service financial exchange for all types of investors.”
Image: Kalshi - Should we bet on when we get the first Polymarket-related wildfire?
Forget for a moment that it’s morally disgusting to let people bet on wildfires; people have already spent $1.2 million doing it. The real question is when someone will commit financially-motivated arson in order to win their bet — because unlike other major environmental events, massive fires are easy to create.
People are betting on wildfires. Should they? - High Country News[High Country News]
- Meta + Kalshi and Polymarket?
In addition to tasking staffers at Meta to develop a prediction markets app, CEO Mark Zuckerberg has also asked executives to look into partnerships with Kalshi and Polymarket, The New York Times reports. Meta wants to get “at least 100 million monthly active ‘predictors’ for the app,” which is set to be targeted toward 18- to 34-year-olds, the NYT says.
Zuckerberg Urges Meta to Explore Working With Polymarket and Kalshi[The New York Times]
Zuckerberg reportedly wants a Polymarket clone — but without real money
Mark Zuckerberg. Image: Cath Virginia / The Verge; Getty ImagesMeta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has tasked a small team at the company with making an app that works like the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi, according to The New York Times. The app, internally called “Arena” won’t let users wager real money, but instead will “probably rely” on allowing users to bet with points, the NYT says — though Meta apparently hasn’t ruled out eventually allowing people to bet with real money.
Should Meta’s app launch publicly, it would be just the latest example of Meta taking a popular idea from another company and building its own version, like it did when it cloned Snapchat’s Stories format and TikTok’s vertical video feed. However, prediction markets have also been rife with controversy, including users being arrested for placing suspicious bets. The Wall Street Journal also recently reported that Polymarket paid people to post fake videos of themselves placing bets.
Read Article >- Of course campaign workers are making money on Polymarket using insider information.
Politicians have been caught betting on their races, and a Google employee was charged with insider trading. So it makes sense that campaign workers are looking to make a little extra cash based on what they know about the candidates they work for. Watch the clip from NPR below.
Polymarket reportedly paid people to post fake videos of themselves placing bets
Image: The VergeAccording to a Wall Street Journal investigation, Polymarket has been paying people to film themselves placing fake bets and celebrating fake wins on social media. WSJ identified over 1,100 deceptive clips and talked to creators who, despite not stating as such in their videos, confirmed the company paid them to create the clips.
The videos posted on social media look legit at first, but there are subtle clues that betray them as fraudulent. For instance, when examined closely, one clip shows someone visiting “poiymarket.com” rather than polymarket.com. According to the Journal’s investigation, none of the bets placed in the over 1,100 videos it reviewed were real. In 118 videos, the creators were shown reacting to winning bets totaling almost $900,000. But in reality, those bets would have lost $166,000.
Read Article >Kalshi adds required employment verification for some prediction market bets
Image: The VergeThe CFTC is considering its first regulation for prediction markets, as arrests over “insider trading” on everything from military operations to Google Search data continue to stack up. As CoinDesk reports, a notice of proposed rulemaking says “the proposal would establish a structured framework for evaluating whether such contracts involve an activity enumerated in Section 5c(c)(5)(C) of the Commodity Exchange Act —activity that involves terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, or conduct that is unlawful under federal or state law—and, if so, whether that contract is contrary to the public interest.”
Separately, Kalshi announced on Wednesday that it’s introducing new market integrity measures following the release of an “independent” audit committee report it commissioned a few months ago.
Read Article >- Kalshi will reportedly ask for employment info for bets in “sensitive” markets.
The Wall Street Journal reports that it’s Kalshi’s latest effort to address insider trading:
Users seeking to make bets in some markets linked to material nonpublic information will be required to submit an online form disclosing where they work, Kalshi said. The changes are set to be rolled out in the coming weeks. Sensitive betting markets related to issues such as company performance and national security, including the war in Iran, are expected to require employment disclosure, according to a Kalshi official.
- NPR reports the feds are investigating George Santos for allegedly betting on his own SOTU attendance.
The former Republican congressman claimed in a video on X that he would be at the State of the Union in February, but didn’t show up. Now, according to NPR reporter Bobby Allyn’s sources, the DOJ and CFTC are investigating whether Santos made tens of thousands of dollars betting on Kalshi that he wouldn’t be there.
- Minnesota is battling the Trump administration over prediction markets.
The state became the first to enact a ban on prediction markets, but a lawsuit from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is trying to keep it from taking effect, arguing it’s the domain of the federal government, NPR reports.
- Use Kalshi code VERGE for a $10 bonus.
Just kidding! But some news organizations are offering prediction market affiliate codes — and publishing thousands of stories pushing gambling deals. Popular Information reports that news orgs owned by Advance Local (including The Oregonian and The Cleveland Plain Dealer) are on track to run more than 14,000 pieces of “gambling slop” this year promoting deals for sportsbooks, casinos, and prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi.
Pulitzer-winning newsrooms are quietly publishing mountains of gambling slop[Popular Information]
- FanDuel’s CEO is “ousted” while investors bet on Kalshi.
Everything is gambling, but not everything in gambling is going great, as CNBC reports that on Wednesday, FanDuel CEO Amy Howe was “ousted from that post after five years at the company.” FanDuel’s stock is down 60 percent over the last year, and DraftKings shares are down 30 percent.
Meanwhile, prediction market Kalshi just announced it’s raised a $1 billion investment round at a $22 billion valuation, twice as much as it was worth in December, and claimed to project “annualized” trading volume of $178 billion.
- What does Polymarket’s US “CEO” actually do?
A report by The Information says that for the US-licensed arm of the prediction market, chief executive Justin Hertzberg “appears to be CEO in name only,” despite his protestations to the contrary.
It also runs down Polymarket’s issues in losing BMO Bank as a banking partner and Hertzberg’s history of launching “more than 300 prop trading firms,” including one, Surge Trader, where victims of an alleged Ponzi scheme sued him to get their money back.
Polymarket’s Homecoming Is Shaky and its U.S. CEO Is AWOL[The Information]
- Polymarket’s top 0.1 percent.
A Wall Street Journal analysis of 1.6 million accounts on the prediction market platform found that just 0.1 percent of accounts are raking in 67 percent of profits. Most Polymarket and Kalshi users are losing money — and the platforms continue to try to use journalists and influencers to bring in customers.
Why Almost Everyone Loses—Except a Few Sharks—on Prediction Markets[The Wall Street Journal]
Players from the NBA, NFL, and MLB call for a ban on betting ‘unders’
Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty ImagesThe unions backing professional NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, and MLS players are calling on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to ban prediction market platforms from allowing users to bet on a player’s underperformance or injury, Sports Business Journal reports. In their letter, the unions cite the need for “appropriate regulations” to protect athletes and their families from “abusive and harassing behavior.”
The unions wrote the letter in response to the CFTC’s request for comment on the regulation of prediction markets, such as those operated by Kalshi and Polymarket. In addition to asking for a ban on “under” bets, the unions also want the CFTC to prevent people from betting on whether certain words or phrases are spoken during a broadcast, like “concussion” — which they describe as “another way of betting on a negative outcome.“
Read Article >- The Senate bans senators from prediction markets.
In a unanimous vote, the Senate passed a rule on Thursday that bars senators and their staff from trading on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, effective immediately, as CNBC reports. The ban follows growing concerns about insider trading — earlier this month, Kalshi banned three political candidates for bets related to their races.
US arrests soldier who allegedly made $400K on Maduro Polymarket bets
Nicolas Maduro is seen in handcuffs after landing at a Manhattan helipad on January 5, 2026 in New York City. Image: XNY/Star Max/GC ImagesWe knew someone made over $400,000 on suspicious Polymarket bets around the US operation to capture Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, but now we have a name: Gannon Ken Van Dyke. The US Attorney for the Southern District of New York announced Thursday that Van Dyke is in custody, on several charges, including using confidential government information for personal gain.
As described in the indictment, prosecutors allege Van Dyke was directly involved in the planning and execution of “Operation Absolute Resolve” to capture Maduro, and in the days before the capture, made several transactions purchasing “$33,934 worth of ‘YES’ shares on Maduro and Venezuela-related markets,” eventually profiting $409,881.
Read Article >- A soldier “directly involved” in Maduro’s capture has been arrested over Polymarket bets.
As first reported by ABC News and now confirmed by the DOJ, federal investigators believe special forces soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke put down $33k on prediction market bets about Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro being removed from office, just before Trump announced his capture in January, profiting over $400,000.
- Kalshi fined and banned three political candidates for insider trading.
The prediction market took action against a handful of congressional candidates: Ezekiel Enriquez (a Republican running in Texas); Mark Moran (an Independent in Virginia, who says he meant to get caught); and Matt Klein (a Democrat in Minnesota) for betting in markets related to their political races. Each was banned from the platform for five years and fined modest amounts ranging from several hundred to several thousand dollars.
- Illinois tightens rules around insider trading.
Governor JB Pritzker signed an executive order today dealing specifically with prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. State employees were already barred from using insider information for personal gain, but this executive order specifically bans them from using it to make bets on prediction markets.
- No big bets on Tiny Desk.
NPR issued prediction market guidance to staff, according to media reporter Ben Mullin, banning employees from betting on news events as well as NPR-related topics (like future Tiny Desk guests — yes, there’s a small market for that).
I reported last week that newsrooms are adding prediction market-specific rules to their code of ethics, even as some of those same news outlets partner with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
