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Sean Hollister

Sean Hollister

Senior Editor

Senior Editor

    More From Sean Hollister

    Sean Hollister
    Sean Hollister
    “You didn’t base your conclusion on any documents created by Apple in the real world, did you?”

    Google’s attorney is pushing Bernheim to admit he didn’t actually reply on any Apple documents when deciding that Apple wasn’t part of the relevant market.

    He hasn’t quite admitted it yet, but it definitely looks like he didn’t based on his replies and dodges so far.

    (After several “real-world” probes from Google, Judge Donato got a laugh across the courtroom by shutting that specific phrase down. “We’re only talking about the real world here,” he said. Reader, I LOL’d.)

    Sean Hollister
    Sean Hollister
    It’s Google’s turn to cross-examine Epic’s economics expert.

    We’re back from a quick break, and Bernheim is still on the stand — but now, Google gets the chance to poke holes in his testimony or point him a different direction.

    Google’s attorney is beginning with apps:

    “It’s true isn’t it that the quality and variety of apps is an important factor for the device people buy, isn’t it?”

    Bornheim won’t go quite that far, but he seems to be admitting that some apps do launch on the iPhone first.

    Sean Hollister
    Sean Hollister
    In 2021, Google Play allegedly made 79 cents per every app download.

    We’ve gotten to the part of Epic’s expert economist testimony where Bernheim is arguing that Google profits from monopoly power. His first big point: Google is making five times more from app downloads than it did in 2015.

    78 cents per app download in 2021, he says — compared to 61 cents in 2020, 46 cents in 2019, 35 cents in 2018, 26 cents in 2017, 19 cents in 2016, and 15 cents in 2015.

    Sean Hollister
    Sean Hollister
    Did Fortnite show Google’s monopoly power all by itself?

    When Google booted Fortnite off its Google Play app store, Epic’s economics expert attests, Android usage fell off significantly — which suggests Android users didn’t just go find another way to get the game, Bernheim says.

    Nor did they just start playing on other platforms like PlayStation, he says. “There’s no indication of substitution of usage to other platforms.” He’s been arguing that the lack of substitutes shows where a company has monopoly power.

    (When Google and Apple booted the game off their store, it did keep working, but those players got left behind. I would also point out that Fortnite on mobile didn’t have much retention to begin with, though.)

    Sean Hollister
    Sean Hollister
    “If Google raises its Play prices today, the average consumer isn’t going to do anything about it at all for 17 to 18 months.”

    Bernstein says that because the average consumer only buys a new phone every 2.7 years, any switching that does indeed happen takes a while.

    We’re now looking at a slide dramatically presenting a clip art pair of imbalanced scales, with a “small increase in price of Android app distribution” getting significantly tipped by the “absence of low-end iPhones,” “infrequency of phone purchases,” “learning costs” and other conclusions about the costs of switching to an iPhone.

    Sean Hollister
    Sean Hollister
    Epic’s expert is trying to suggest we’d have seen more customers switch between Android and iPhone if it was a good substitute.

    I don’t really buy that personally, but I did like how Bernheim admitted that switching has gotten easier in some ways. Too many witnesses feel like they’ve been stuck in the past on how Android works.

    Now, we’ve moved onto smartphone pricing: he’s suggesting that Apple and Android have targeted different markets with their phones — and that they’ve continued to diverge, with the price of the average Android phone generally getting lower while the average iPhone price gets higher.

    Sean Hollister
    Sean Hollister
    Market definition: Epic’s expert suggests it’s the difference between movie theaters and televisions.

    If you’re like me, you’ve been wondering for weeks — how can Epic possibly justify that Google isn’t primarily competing with the iPhone?

    Bernheim says market definition is about whether good substitutes exist, ones that can keep a monopolist from charging whatever it wants for a product. Picture a Samsung television: “You could have bought an LG television, you could have bought a Panasonic, those would be good substitutes.”

    Are movie theaters a good substitute, though, if your goal is to watch movies? “We have to ask ourselves, is that a close enough substitute that manufacturers are providing enough discipline for the product manufacturers? And in that example it’s a little far fetched.”

    He claims that neither consumers nor developers have good substitutes for Google Play when it comes to getting apps. App distribution on iPhones, non-smartphones, or web apps don’t compete, he says.

    Sean Hollister
    Sean Hollister
    Epic’s expert got to present an educated guess about Google and Samsung’s relationship.

    Why might Samsung have decided to back away from seriously competing with an app store even if it didn’t get paid off?

    “The economic principles that speak to this issue concern what happens when you have corporations that do many things and have may points of contact with each other — they have an interdependent relationship,” says Bernheim, pointing out how Samsung has manufactured the Pixel’s processor among other things.

    “What we know is in those types of settings, companies tend to mutually forebear to some degree... even if they don’t agree not to compete, they find it in their best interests,” he says.

    I expect Google will combat that during cross-examination.

    Sean Hollister
    Sean Hollister
    Epic’s economist: “That’s what utter dominance looks like.”

    Directing our attention to a slide titled “Third-Party App Stores Do Not Constrain Google’s Monopoly Power,” Bernheim shows that every competing app store together adds up to just 5 percent of “entitlements,” i.e., Android app downloads. It’s not clear what the source of the data is here.

    Then, he shows us another slide titled “Samsung Galaxy Store Only Has Five of the Top 20 Apps Worldwide (2020),” which is exactly what it sounds like.

    The missing top 20 apps, as of 2020: WhatsApp, Zoom, Facebook, Snapchat, Messenger, Facebook Lite, Telegram, Garena Free Fire, Subway Surfers, Among Us, SnackVideo, Hunter Assassin, Ludo King, Netflix, and My Talking Tom Friends.

    (Samsung did have TikTok, Instagram, Likee, Gardenscapes, and Shareit, according to the slide.)

    Sean Hollister
    Sean Hollister
    “For every dollar that you pull away from Google, you’re losing 20 cents off the top.”

    Epic’s expert economist (and Stanford professor) Doug Bernheim, explaining why smartphone manufacturers who’ve signed with Google are disincentivized to compete by preloading other app stores — even if they weren’t contractually obligated not to.

    He says it gets worse: “If Google ends up reducing its commission rate in response to your competitive entry, you end up reducing your commission on everything else you sell.”

    The “20 cents” part isn’t theoretical. Bernheim says he found Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo, and OnePlus each get 20 percent from Google. HMD (Nokia) and TCL signed 10 percent revshare deals.

    We previously saw Google had planned to offer 16 percent to key Chinese OEMs, but I guess it grew to 20 percent.